Very keen here on Winning Rupert filly 7. Semana who draws to get a soft run in what is a weak race. Ploughed through heavy ground late to win on debut before finishing strongly from midfield in a much deeper provincial class 1. Draws to get a charmed run over a furlong further for a leading city stable, and almost has this at her mercy, with a couple of others running at Canberra on Sunday instead.
Dangers: Honest five-year-old 3. Shubick is fit, continues to build a tidy record and draws to be in the finish. Big gap to the rest.
How to play it: Semana to win.
Odds and Evens: Odds.
RACE 5 – 3.30PM: CENTRAL WEST POWER CONSTRUCTIONS BENCHMARK 58 HANDICAP (2100m)
A modest battle of tactics here over the longer journey, and there are plenty of chances. No better value than tough six-year-old 7. For Da Boys who never shirks the task, and has been placed in four of his last five. Worked home fairly through heavy going in a deeper race at Scone two back before chasing hard behind the winner in weaker grade 16 days ago. Drops significantly in weight, with a much stronger rider back on, and he can settle off the speed before charging over the top late.
Dangers: Plenty of them, headed by 2. Adelaide’s Diamond who has consistently found the line OK this prep in marginally better races. Including metro four-year-old 4. Sandastan who has been up for a long time, but finds his easiest race in some time while 3. Thieve, who won a deeper provincial BM58 three starts back but draws wide, and honest seven-year-old 5. Yak, who likes to roll forward, are worthy exotic runners.
How to play it: For Da Boys each-way.
Odds and Evens: Split.
RACE 6 – 4.10PM: THE ORIANA BENCHMARK 58 HANDICAP- HEAT OF THE RISING STAR (1280m)
Same grade now for the sprinters in a heat of the Rising Star, and confident still-improving five-year-old 1. Vital Verse can go back-to-back in a similar race. Had been working towards a win before a dominant display from barrier to box at Narromine, and the hike in weight has been offset with the booking of a 3kg-claiming junior rider. May look for a spot behind the speed this time from a wider draw.
Dangers: Naturally, consistent metro-based filly 6. Covalent will be hard to stop from a low draw and 2kg claim, while wider in the market keep safe 4. Down To Earth dropping in class from a six week freshen-up, and 5. Money Not My God deep into the prep, also with a 2kg weight allowance.
How to play it: Vital Verse to win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
RACE 7 – 4.50PM: CONTEMPORARY HOMES BENCHMARK 74 HANDICAP (1400m)
Deepest and best race of the program is saved for last, and all aboard tough seven-year-old 11. Joey’s Chance at the value. Hasn’t won for a while, but strong closing efforts in his last two at the provincials have him over the odds in this company. Can settle a bit closer to the speed from a nice draw, and a senior country rider being booked is a big plus.
Dangers: Canberra five-year-old 4. Propose a Toast is the big threat, dropping back from superior form lines. Perennial frontrunner who should be suited around this tighter circuit, and the rise in weight more than offset by the inside barrier. Underrated seven-year-old 5. Lockdown Gamble is another one who will relish a clear drop in quality fourth-up after dropping out in a Saturday Highway at Kembla. 3. Larynx can mix his runs, but is capable of working into the finish.
How to play it: Joey’s Chance to win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Best bets:
Race 2 No.4 ITHICUS
Race 4 No.7 SEMANA
Best value:
Race 7 No.11 JOEY’S CHANCE
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.
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Source: www.brisbanetimes.com.au
