Moderna’s Covid Vaccine Sales Drop in 2023, Despite Meeting Forecasts

**The Impact of Moderna’s Covid Vaccine Sales in 2023**

In an unexpected turn of events, Moderna revealed a significant drop in its Covid vaccine sales in 2023, despite meeting its initial forecasts. Let’s delve into the intricacies of this unprecedented decline and explore its potential implications and future prospects.

**Sales Plunge and Revenue Forecast**

Moderna’s Covid vaccine sales tumbled by two-thirds in 2023, amounting to $6.7 billion, a stark contrast to the staggering $18 billion it generated in 2022. Although the revenue from the shots aligned with the company’s forecast, the plummet in sales signified a concerning trend.

**Factors Contributing to the Decline**

The substantial drop in demand for Covid products in 2023 can be attributed to the waning cases and public apprehension towards the virus, marking a significant departure from the peak of the pandemic. Consequently, the diminished demand for Moderna’s vaccine, its sole commercially available product, resulted in a staggering 45% decline in the company’s shares.

**Revenue Breakdown and Market Share**

Out of the total revenue, approximately $6.1 billion emanated from the sales of the vaccine, with an additional $600 million categorized as deferred revenue related to the company’s collaboration with Gavi, a global vaccine organization. It’s noteworthy that Moderna’s vaccine secured 48% of the U.S. Covid vaccine market share in 2023, showcasing a notable increase from the 37% market share in 2022.

**Future Projections and Market Dynamics**

Looking ahead, Moderna anticipates a further decrease in sales from the vaccine in 2024, reiterating its full-year sales guidance of approximately $4 billion. Notably, this forecast encompasses revenue from the vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which could potentially obtain FDA approval in April. However, the company envisions a resurgence in sales growth in 2025 with the introduction of new products and the launch of its combination shot targeting Covid and the flu, potentially gaining approval by 2025.

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**Significance of Combination Vaccines**

Moderna’s initiative in developing combination vaccines, particularly targeting Covid and the flu, holds promising prospects for enhancing patient convenience, streamlining healthcare provision, and reducing costs. These factors may collectively contribute to bolstering Covid vaccination rates, thereby laying the groundwork for a potential positive impact on future sales and market dynamics.


Moderna’s unprecedented decline in Covid vaccine sales in 2023 has prompted reflections on the evolving landscape of pandemic response and market dynamics. As the company sets its sights on innovative combination vaccines and new product launches, the trajectory of its sales and market position remains a focal point of interest.


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