Ibovespa closes at a high of 1.83%, against the United States, after decisions of the STF; dollar advances 0.28%

The Ibovespa closed up 1.83% this Monday (19), at 104,739 points. The main index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange has moved away from what was seen in the United States, with the help, in part, of the local political news.

In New York, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreated, respectively, 0.49%, 0.90% and 1.49%, following the sequence of declines started since last Wednesday, when the Federal Open Market Committee (Fomc , in its acronym in English), went public with its decision on interest rates – which, despite being within expectations, had a slightly tougher announcement, speaking of higher rates next year and kept high for longer.

“In the USA, the performance of the indices is negative, since the market is again pessimistic in relation to the American economy after the recent speeches of monetary authorities, fearing, again, a recession”, explains Edmar de Oliveira, variable income operator from One Investimentos.

Os treasuries yields, with all the post-Fomc issue, they closed higher, with those for two years gaining 8.8 basis points, at 4.268%, and those for ten years, 11 points, at 3.592%.

“Here, we are much more connected to the internal scenario than to the external one. The Federal Supreme Court [STF] placed Bolsa Família outside the spending ceiling🇧🇷 On the one hand, that’s a good thing, because it limits spending outside of that cap. Today, there is talk of an amount outside the ceiling of BRL 150 billion, and, in this case, it would be something between BRL 30 or BRL 40 billion”, adds Oliveira. “On the other hand, Arthur Lira [presidente da Câmara dos Deputados] already appeared defending the need to take this discussion to the legislature. It is difficult, for now, to measure impacts”.

“Some market participants see that this release will have a positive fiscal impact, with a smaller gap than in the case of an approval of the Transition PEC itself. However, we have to monitor this closely. The discussion will continue over the next few days”, debates João Vítor Freitas, an analyst at Toro Investimentos.

In addition to the question of Gilmar Mendes, there was the publication that Lira also believes that the PEC can reach a “middle ground”, with the deadline for extending the ceiling by R$ 145 billion falling to one year.

Financial agents also assessed the impact of a contrary decision by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) this Monday to the so-called secret budget, on the processing of the Transition PEC.

Phil Soares, head of stock analysis at Órama, also argues that, in addition to the political news, the Ibovespa benefited from a “typical trading session of highs”, after a sequence of declines.

The Brazilian yield curve also took a breather. DIs for 2024 lost 5.5 basis points, at 13.93%, and those for 2025, 8.5 points, at 13.73%. Contracts for 2027 were at 13.62%, with less 4.5 points, and those for 2031, at 13.50%, losing one point.

With the possibility of a lower fiscal risk and a lower interest rate, companies linked to the internal scenario were among the main rises of the Ibovespa. Via’s common shares (VIIA3) gained 16.23%, those of Qualicorp (QUAL3), 14.68%, and those of Americanas (AMER3), 12,65%.

The commercial dollar, however, closed up 0.28% against the real, at R$5.309 for purchases and R$5.308 for sales. The American currency has been oscillating little, however, against the Brazilian one, which is aided by foreign market.

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