The Ibovespa closed at a 2% high this Friday (23rd), at 109,697 points, consolidating a 6.65% rise in the week, the biggest increase for such an interval since the week ended on October 21st, and strengthening the narrative that there is a “Christmas rally”. The main index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange, in addition, once again performed better than its North American peers, which had less expressive rises.
Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.53%, 0.59% and 0.21%, respectively. With the exception of the first benchmark, which advanced 0.87% in the week, the other two retreated, however, 0.20% and 1.94%, in the same order.
Over there, the release of the consumer spending price index (PCE) for December, in line with the consensus, helped to reduce risk aversion, installed since the announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee (Fomc), which brought a tougher tone to monetary policy, and which gained strength after third quarter US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release this Thursday.
“The bets, in the United States, continue to be on a more considerable rise in interest rates, but, at least, the data did not help to increase risk aversion. It was good data, but it doesn’t change the whole scenario already designed”, explains Gabriel Mota, variable income operator at Manchester Investimentos.
Os treasuries yields, despite inflation within expectations, closed higher. The two-year one gained 6.2 basis points, at 4.327%, and the ten-year one, eight points, at 3.751%.
The Ibovespa, for the operator, has been surfing on a good flow of foreign capital into the country.
“We have seen the entry of foreigners supporting the most expressive rises in the index, mainly of assets that are relevant within the Ibovespa, such as banks and Petrobras”, comments Mota. “For us to have an idea of how foreigners have helped, December, so far, is the fifth best flow month. This is largely due to the comparison between price and profit of companies, which are attractive in the long term, removing interference from volatility”.
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And volatility, according to experts, decreased considerably this week due to weaker political news at the end of it – which tends to continue next week. “Next week should continue in this vein, with investors a little fearful just with the latest announcements by the Lula government. But part of the most important ministries have already been announced and the agenda should be empty in Brasilia. Without external changes, or bomb news, the Ibovespa should continue to perform well”, defends the Manchester professional.
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“Today, the highlight is the good performance of the Brazilian Stock Exchange compared to foreign indices. I think it’s a technical movement, one of recovery after the sharp declines generated by the composition of the economic team and the greater fiscal risks. With the political halt, with the end of the news crop, the market finds room to recover”, says Luiz Adriano Martinez, portfolio manager at Kilima Asset.
Among the biggest rises of the Ibovespa in the week were, precisely, companies that had been suffering due to the political news. The common shares of CVC (CVCB3) gained 7.53%, those of B3 (B3SA3), 8.57%, and those of Positivo (POSI3), 8,11%. (B3SA3), with another 8.57%.
The combination of empty political news and high oil prices, after Russia announced cuts in its production, helped to pull Petrobras’ common and preferred shares (PETR3;PETR4), which rose, in sequence, 5.12% and 4.71%. The common shares of 3R Petroleum (RRRP3), in turn, increased by 8.34%.
“Petrobras rose well. Oil goes up abroad but the state-owned company stands out positively even in relation to other companies in the sector. Recently, there was fear of government intervention in the company and now there is a technical movement”, points out Martinez.
Alexsandro Nishimura, economist and partner at BRA BS, follows the same path, highlighting the reduction of fiscal concerns, after the approval of a “slimmer” Transition PEC. It also draws attention, however, for the release of the IPCA-15 (sort of official inflation preview) of December, which came with an increase of 0.52%, within market consensus.
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“The December IPCA-15 came in slightly below the median of estimates and boosted increases in local assets in this session, with future interest rates falling, which again gave strength to retailer stocks”, he explains.
The yield curve, with all these factors, retreated en bloc. The DIs for 2024 were at a rate of 13.46%, with minus 17 basis points, and those for 2025, at 12.78%, with minus 21.5 points. DIs for 2027 lost 12.5 points, at 12.78%, and those for 2029, 12 points, at 12.80%. The DIs for 2031 closed at 12.79%, down 11 points.
The dollar lost a little strength worldwide, with the DXY, which measures the performance of the American currency against other developed countries, falling 0.12%, to 104.30 points. Against the real, the drop was 0.38%, at R$ 5.166 in purchases and sales, with a decrease of 2.4% in the week.
“After a day of disclosing ministers, we had the stock market operating at a high today. In my view, the market was pleased with the name of Geraldo Alckmin as Minister of Industry and Commerce, which is excellent for the position he will occupy and very well regarded by the market. In addition, Fernando Haddad’s posture is more receptive and the market is more relaxed with him at the head of the economic team”, concludes Rodrigo Cohen, CNPI analyst and co-founder of Escola de Investimentos.
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