Like every December 22, Spain is paralyzed to find out the results of the National Lottery Christmas draw. And every year, there is no shortage of superstitions and mathematical calculations that portend a prize. The doctor in statistics and mathematician Javier Alvarez de Liebana It’s one of the senior experts in Spain about the probabilities and mathematical formulas with which the National lottery. And it has the trick to know the probabilities that you have of winning the Jackpot.
In it Extraordinary Christmas Draw, 100,000 numbers participate and only one is the top winner. This means that there is a 1 in 100,000 chance that your Lottery ticket will be the winner with the highest prize. To practice this probabilistic calculation at home, Álvarez de Liébana proposes the following exercise: “You are more likely to flip a coin 16 times and land heads 16 times, to win the Lottery Gordo. It will most likely never come heads all 16 times, no matter how hard you roll. The same thing happens with the Christmas Lottery”, says the expert.
As much as Iker Jimenez have crossed data on combinations from previous editions on their television program and have come across the 76,297 like the perfect number, reality, according to science, is much more disappointing.
“All the numbers have the same options to leave. Probability has no memory: it makes no difference whether a number has been awarded more than once, whether it ends in odd or even, or zero… If there are combinations that have won more than once, it is pure chance. Because all balls are on an equal footing in the bass drum”, continues the statesman. “The only way to increase the probability is to buy more numbers. But that would simply be like having more chances to toss the coin 16 times and all 16 landing on heads”, he adds, in conversation with THE SPANISH.
But how do you explain that there is administrations where they touch more numbers and distribute more prizes? The mathematician’s answer is very simple and returns to the above: the more numbers are bought, the more probability there is. “If an administration like Doña Manolita buys the 100,000 numbers, surely she will hit the jackpot. But that doesn’t mean you’re going to have to buy there,” he says.
Álvarez de Liébana assures that he does not usually play the Lottery because he considers it a wasted expense, on which there is also only a 15% chance of recovering the money invested. “I think it’s a tradition and if I’ve ever played, it’s been to participate in that kind of social ritual, in my department at the university, or with the family. But mathematically, it is practically impossible let it touch you,” he continues.
New this year
In an article published in The Conversation At this time last year, Álvarez de Liébana explained the mechanics of the draw: “Inside the hype there are 100,000 numbers and 172 series of 10 tenths each are printed for each number. Each tenth costs 20 euros and, in the best of cases, only 15,304 numbers will have a prize (15 out of 100). In addition, since with the reimbursement only the expense is recovered, there are only 5,305 numbers (5 out of 100) with which we could really earn money”.
This year, however, the issue consists of 180 series, eight more than in previous years when there were 172 series, of 100,000 numbers each. Said issue amounts to 3,600 million euros, of which 70 percent are distributed in prizes, that is, 2,520 million euros will be distributed. The amount, thus, represents 112 million more than last year, when a total of 2,408 million euros were distributed.
The numbers that have touched the most
Despite the conclusions of the mathematician, in the more than 200 years that the raffle has been held, the most repeated first prize finish has been number 5, which he has played on 32 occasions. They are followed by 4 and 6, who have played 27 times each, 8 (23), 0 (22), 3 (21) and 7 (21).
Regarding the most repeated two-digit endings, they have been the following: 85 (7 times), 57 (6 times), 75 (5 times), 64 (5 times), 95 (4 times), 58 ( 4 times), 40 (4 times) and 90 (4 times). On the contrary, the Gordo number has never ended at 09, 10, 21, 25, 31, 34, 41, 42, 43, 51, 54, 59, 67, 78 and 82.
