Caged, announcement of ministers by Lula and activity data in China: what to follow in the week

The last week of 2022 will be little agitated in economic indicators and with the agenda in Brasilia less busy with the entry into recess of Congress, but it will still bring important events for investors to keep an eye on.

Over here, last Thursday (22), president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced the names for 16 ministries who will make up his government and said that he will finish communicating the list of ministers that will make up the 37 folders in the next few days. Lula explained on the occasion that there will be 13 nominations for ministers, to be announced on Monday (26) or Tuesday (27).

In Brazil, the highlight is the consumer confidence index from the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) for December on Monday (26), in addition to the primary result of the central government, IGP-M for December, and the primary result for the public sector to be be announced in the following days. On Monday, the traditional Central Bank Focus Report will also be released, with market projections for economic indicators.

The IGP-M for December will be released on Thursday (29) and Itaú expects a monthly increase of 0.66%, taking the annualized rate to 5.7%, compared to 5.9% in November. Agricultural wholesale prices are likely to continue with some deflation, while industrial wholesale prices may accelerate due to higher iron ore prices, the bank assesses.

Also pay attention to the November data on the generation of formal jobs from Caged, on Wednesday (28). “Our indicator suggests that the formal private sector continued to slow down in November”, points out Itaú.

The monetary and credit statistics for November will be released by the Central Bank of Brazil. On Wednesday, the primary result of the central government for November will be released, for which Itaú expects a deficit of R$ 18.8 billion. The primary result for the consolidated public sector will be released on Thursday and the estimate is for a deficit of R$ 22.5 billion.

It should also be noted that the Brazilian Stock Exchange will not operate next Friday (30), with the 29th being the last day of operation for the B3 in the year.


Abroad, Wall Street will have a Christmas holiday next Monday (26). In the United States, manufacturing activity data for December will be released on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve Richmond Manufacturing Index will be released on Wednesday December. Also on Wednesday, pending home sales data for November will be published; on the fifth, it is the turn of unemployment insurance claims.

The market should also pay attention to the release of the PMIs (purchasing managers index) for December in China, an important leading indicator that works as a thermometer of economic activity. Composite, manufacturing and ex-manufacturing PMIs will be released on Friday night.

Activity data from Japan, such as the unemployment rate and retail sales on Monday, as well as November industrial production on Tuesday, will also be watched by the market.

Check out next week’s schedule:

Fonte: XP

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